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Transmission potential and severity of COVID-19 in South Korea.

韩国新型冠状病毒肺炎的传播潜力和严重程度。

  • 影响因子:2.89
  • DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.03.031
  • 作者列表:"Shim E","Tariq A","Choi W","Lee Y","Chowell G
  • 发表时间:2020-04-01
Abstract

OBJECTIVES:Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) identified on Jan 20, 2020, in South Korea, the number of cases rapidly increased, resulting in 6284 cases including 42 deaths as of Mar 6, 2020. To examine the growth rate of the outbreak, we present the first study to report the reproduction number of COVID-19 in South Korea. METHODS:The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea were extracted from publicly available sources. By using the empirical reporting delay distribution and simulating the generalized growth model, we estimated the effective reproduction number based on the discretized probability distribution of the generation interval. RESULTS:We identified four major clusters and estimated the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6). In addition, the intrinsic growth rate was estimated at 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6, 0.7), and the scaling of growth parameter was estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8), indicating sub-exponential growth dynamics of COVID-19. The crude case fatality rate is higher among males (1.1%) compared to females (0.4%) and increases with older age. CONCLUSIONS:Our results indicate an early sustained transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

摘要

目标: 自 2020 年 1 月 20 日发现 2019 年新型冠状病毒 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 第一例病例以来,在韩国,病例数量迅速增加,截至 2020 年 3 月 6 日,导致 6284 例病例,包括 42 例死亡。为了检查疫情的增长率,我们提出了第一项报告韩国新型冠状病毒肺炎的繁殖数量的研究。 方法: 从公开来源中提取韩国确诊病例的每日新型冠状病毒肺炎。利用经验报告延迟分布和模拟广义增长模型,基于生成间隔的离散化概率分布估计有效再生数。 结果: 我们确定了四个主要聚类,并估计再生数为 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6)。此外,内在增长率估计为 0.6 (95% CI: 0.6,0.7),生长参数的标度估计为 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7,0.8),表明新型冠状病毒肺炎的次指数增长动态。与女性 (1.1%) 相比,男性 (0.4%) 的粗病死率更高,并且随着年龄的增长而增加。 结论: 我们的结果表明新型冠状病毒肺炎在韩国的早期持续传播,并支持实施社会隔离措施以快速控制疫情。

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影响因子:14.71
发表时间:2020-02-01
来源期刊:Nature immunology
DOI:10.1038/s41590-019-0571-2
作者列表:["Adrover JM","Aroca-Crevillén A","Crainiciuc G","Ostos F","Rojas-Vega Y","Rubio-Ponce A","Cilloniz C","Bonzón-Kulichenko E","Calvo E","Rico D","Moro MA","Weber C","Lizasoaín I","Torres A","Ruiz-Cabello J","Vázquez J","Hidalgo A"]

METHODS::The antimicrobial functions of neutrophils are facilitated by a defensive armamentarium of proteins stored in granules, and by the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). However, the toxic nature of these structures poses a threat to highly vascularized tissues, such as the lungs. Here, we identified a cell-intrinsic program that modified the neutrophil proteome in the circulation and caused the progressive loss of granule content and reduction of the NET-forming capacity. This program was driven by the receptor CXCR2 and by regulators of circadian cycles. As a consequence, lungs were protected from inflammatory injury at times of day or in mouse mutants in which granule content was low. Changes in the proteome, granule content and NET formation also occurred in human neutrophils, and correlated with the incidence and severity of respiratory distress in pneumonia patients. Our findings unveil a 'disarming' strategy of neutrophils that depletes protein stores to reduce the magnitude of inflammation.

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影响因子:2.81
发表时间:2020-01-05
DOI:10.3390/ijerph17010356
作者列表:["Yang LC","Suen YJ","Wang YH","Lin TC","Yu HC","Chang YC"]

METHODS::Pneumonia is a common respiratory infectious disease that involves the inflammation of the pulmonary parenchyma. Periodontal disease is widespread and correlated with pneumonia. However, the relationship between periodontal treatment and clinical infectious outcomes in patients with pneumonia has remained undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between periodontal treatment and the risk of pneumonia events in the Taiwanese population. A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). A total of 49,400 chronic periodontitis patients who received periodontal treatment from 2001 to 2012 were selected. In addition, 49,400 healthy individuals without periodontal diseases were picked randomly from the general population after propensity score matching according to age, gender, monthly income, urbanization, and comorbidities. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was adopted to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of pneumonia between the periodontal treatment cohort and the comparison cohort. The average ages of the periodontal treatment and comparison groups were 44.25 ± 14.82 years and 44.15 ± 14.5 years, respectively. The follow up durations were 7.66 and 7.41 years for the periodontal treatment and comparison groups, respectively. We found 2504 and 1922 patients with newly diagnosed pneumonia in the comparison cohort and the periodontal treatment cohort, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier plot revealed that the cumulative incidence of pneumonia was significantly lower over the 12 year follow-up period in the periodontal treatment group (using the log-rank test, p < 0.001). In conclusion, this nationwide population-based study indicated that the patients with periodontal treatment exhibited a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than the general population.

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影响因子:2.89
发表时间:2020-04-01
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.038
作者列表:["Ngocho JS","Horumpende PG","de Jonge MI","Mmbaga BT"]

METHODS:OBJECTIVE:To describe the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children under five years in Tanzania. METHODS:Between January and December 2017, children aged 2-59 months with chest radiography-confirmed CAP were enrolled. The parents were interviewed to collect information on the patients and home-based medication. Clinical information was derived from the patient files. Nasopharyngeal swab and blood samples were collected for isolation of the causative pathogens. Swab samples were analysed by quantitative PCR whereas blood samples were tested using BacT/Alert 3D. RESULTS:Overall, 109 children with CAP were included in this analysis. Provision of care to most children was delayed (median = 4.6 days). A quarter (26.6%) were given unprescribed/leftover antibiotics at home. Only one child had positive bacterial culture. Referrals were associated with nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (p = 0.003) and Haemophilus influenzae (p = 0.004). Of all admitted children, more than a quarter (n = 29) did not need to be hospitalised and inappropriately received injectable instead of oral antibiotics. CONCLUSION:We found high rates of home treatment, particularly with antibiotics. Appropriate health care was delayed for most children because of home treatment. Efforts are needed at the community level to improve awareness of antimicrobial resistance.

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肺炎方向

肺炎是指终末气道、肺泡和肺间质的炎症。可由细菌、病毒、真菌、寄生虫等致病微生物,以及放射线、吸入性异物等理化因素引起。临床主要症状为发热、咳嗽、咳痰、痰中带血,可伴胸痛或呼吸困难等。

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