The effectiveness of quarantine of Wuhan city against the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): A well-mixed SEIR model analysis.
有效性检疫武汉市对电晕病毒疾病 2019 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) (以英语发言): 混合均匀的SEIR模型分析 [j].
- 作者列表："Hou C","Chen J","Zhou Y","Hua L","Yuan J","He S","Guo Y","Zhang S","Jia Q","Zhao C","Zhang J","Xu G","Jia E
:A novel coronavirus pneumonia, first identified in Wuhan City and referred to as COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, has been quickly spreading to other cities and countries. To control the epidemic, the Chinese government mandated a quarantine of the Wuhan city on January 23, 2020. To explore the effectiveness of the quarantine of the Wuhan city against this epidemic, transmission dynamics of COVID-19 have been estimated. A well-mixed "susceptible exposed infectious recovered" (SEIR) compartmental model was employed to describe the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic based on epidemiological characteristics of individuals, clinical progression of COVID-19, and quarantine intervention measures of the authority. Considering infected individuals as contagious during the latency period, the well-mixed SEIR model fitting results based on the assumed contact rate of latent individuals are within 6-18, which represented the possible impact of quarantine and isolation interventions on disease infections, whereas other parameter were suppose as unchanged under the current intervention. The present study shows that, by reducing the contact rate of latent individuals, interventions such as quarantine and isolation can effectively reduce the potential peak number of COVID-19 infections and delay the time of peak infection.
: 武汉市首次确定的新冠肺炎，被世界卫生组织简称为新型冠状病毒肺炎，目前已迅速向其他城市和国家扩散。为了控制疫情，中国政府于 2020 年 1 月 23 日强制对武汉市检疫要探讨的检疫的武汉城市这一流行病传播动力学的新型冠状病毒肺炎估计.一个混合良好的 “易感暴露感染恢复” (SEIR) 区室模型被用来描述新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病的动态，基于个体的流行病学特征，新型冠状病毒肺炎的临床进展，和当局的检疫干预措施。考虑感染个体在潜伏期内具有传染性，基于假定潜伏个体接触率的混合良好的SEIR模型拟合结果在 6-18 之间，这代表了可能影响检疫和隔离干预疾病感染，而其他参数假设不变下目前的干预.本研究表明，通过降低接触率潜伏的个人，干预措施，如检疫和隔离，可有效减少可能出现的峰值数新型冠状病毒肺炎感染和延迟时间的峰值.
METHODS::The antimicrobial functions of neutrophils are facilitated by a defensive armamentarium of proteins stored in granules, and by the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). However, the toxic nature of these structures poses a threat to highly vascularized tissues, such as the lungs. Here, we identified a cell-intrinsic program that modified the neutrophil proteome in the circulation and caused the progressive loss of granule content and reduction of the NET-forming capacity. This program was driven by the receptor CXCR2 and by regulators of circadian cycles. As a consequence, lungs were protected from inflammatory injury at times of day or in mouse mutants in which granule content was low. Changes in the proteome, granule content and NET formation also occurred in human neutrophils, and correlated with the incidence and severity of respiratory distress in pneumonia patients. Our findings unveil a 'disarming' strategy of neutrophils that depletes protein stores to reduce the magnitude of inflammation.
METHODS::Pneumonia is a common respiratory infectious disease that involves the inflammation of the pulmonary parenchyma. Periodontal disease is widespread and correlated with pneumonia. However, the relationship between periodontal treatment and clinical infectious outcomes in patients with pneumonia has remained undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between periodontal treatment and the risk of pneumonia events in the Taiwanese population. A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). A total of 49,400 chronic periodontitis patients who received periodontal treatment from 2001 to 2012 were selected. In addition, 49,400 healthy individuals without periodontal diseases were picked randomly from the general population after propensity score matching according to age, gender, monthly income, urbanization, and comorbidities. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was adopted to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of pneumonia between the periodontal treatment cohort and the comparison cohort. The average ages of the periodontal treatment and comparison groups were 44.25 ± 14.82 years and 44.15 ± 14.5 years, respectively. The follow up durations were 7.66 and 7.41 years for the periodontal treatment and comparison groups, respectively. We found 2504 and 1922 patients with newly diagnosed pneumonia in the comparison cohort and the periodontal treatment cohort, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier plot revealed that the cumulative incidence of pneumonia was significantly lower over the 12 year follow-up period in the periodontal treatment group (using the log-rank test, p < 0.001). In conclusion, this nationwide population-based study indicated that the patients with periodontal treatment exhibited a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than the general population.
METHODS:OBJECTIVE:To describe the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children under five years in Tanzania. METHODS:Between January and December 2017, children aged 2-59 months with chest radiography-confirmed CAP were enrolled. The parents were interviewed to collect information on the patients and home-based medication. Clinical information was derived from the patient files. Nasopharyngeal swab and blood samples were collected for isolation of the causative pathogens. Swab samples were analysed by quantitative PCR whereas blood samples were tested using BacT/Alert 3D. RESULTS:Overall, 109 children with CAP were included in this analysis. Provision of care to most children was delayed (median = 4.6 days). A quarter (26.6%) were given unprescribed/leftover antibiotics at home. Only one child had positive bacterial culture. Referrals were associated with nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (p = 0.003) and Haemophilus influenzae (p = 0.004). Of all admitted children, more than a quarter (n = 29) did not need to be hospitalised and inappropriately received injectable instead of oral antibiotics. CONCLUSION:We found high rates of home treatment, particularly with antibiotics. Appropriate health care was delayed for most children because of home treatment. Efforts are needed at the community level to improve awareness of antimicrobial resistance.