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New estimates of the Zika virus epidemic attack rate in Northeastern Brazil from 2015 to 2016: A modelling analysis based on Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) surveillance data.

2015-2016 年巴西东北部寨卡病毒流行罹患率的新估计: 基于格林-巴利综合征 (GBS) 监测数据的建模分析。

  • 影响因子:4.33
  • DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007502
  • 作者列表:"He D","Zhao S","Lin Q","Musa SS","Stone L
  • 发表时间:2020-04-29
Abstract

BACKGROUND:Between January 2015 and August 2016, two epidemic waves of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease swept the Northeastern (NE) region of Brazil. As a result, two waves of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) were observed concurrently. The mandatory reporting of ZIKV disease began region-wide in February 2016, and it is believed that ZIKV cases were significantly under-reported before that. The changing reporting rate has made it difficult to estimate the ZIKV infection attack rate, and studies in the literature vary widely from 17% to > 50%. The same applies to other key epidemiological parameters. In contrast, the diagnosis and reporting of GBS cases were reasonably reliable given the severity and easy recognition of the disease symptoms. In this paper, we aim to estimate the real number of ZIKV cases (i.e., the infection attack rate) and their dynamics in time, by scaling up from GBS surveillance data in NE Brazil. METHODOLOGY:A mathematical compartmental model is constructed that makes it possible to infer the true epidemic dynamics of ZIKV cases based on surveillance data of excess GBS cases. The model includes the possibility that asymptomatic ZIKV cases are infectious. The model is fitted to the GBS surveillance data and the key epidemiological parameters are inferred by using a plug-and-play likelihood-based estimation. We make use of regional weather data to determine possible climate-driven impacts on the reproductive number [Formula: see text], and to infer the true ZIKV epidemic dynamics. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS:The GBS surveillance data can be used to study ZIKV epidemics and may be appropriate when ZIKV reporting rates are not well understood. The overall infection attack rate (IAR) of ZIKV is estimated to be 24.1% (95% confidence interval: 17.1%-29.3%) of the population. By examining various asymptomatic scenarios, the IAR is likely to be lower than 33% over the two ZIKV waves. The risk rate from symptomatic ZIKV infection to develop GBS was estimated as ρ = 0.0061% (95% CI: 0.0050%-0.0086%) which is significantly less than current estimates. We found a positive association between local temperature and the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. Our analysis revealed that asymptomatic infections affect the estimation of ZIKV epidemics and need to also be carefully considered in related modelling studies. According to the estimated effective reproduction number and population wide susceptibility, we comment that a ZIKV outbreak would be unlikely in NE Brazil in the near future.

摘要

背景: 2015 年 1 月至 2016 年 8 月,两次寨卡病毒 (ZIKV) 病的流行浪潮席卷巴西东北部 (NE) 地区。结果,同时观察到两波格林-巴利综合征 (GBS)。2016 年 2 月开始在全区范围内强制报告ZIKV疾病,认为在此之前ZIKV病例明显漏报。不断变化的报告率使得很难估计ZIKV感染罹患率,文献中的研究从 17% 到> 50% 差异很大。这同样适用于其他关键流行病学参数。相比之下,鉴于疾病症状的严重程度和容易识别,GBS病例的诊断和报告相当可靠。在本文中,我们旨在估计ZIKV病例的真实数量 (i。e.,感染罹患率) 及其时间动态,通过扩大巴西NE的GBS监测数据。 方法学: 构建了一个数学分区模型,使得根据过量GBS病例的监测数据推断ZIKV病例的真实流行动态成为可能。该模型包括无症状ZIKV病例具有传染性的可能性。该模型与GBS监测数据拟合,并通过使用即插即用的基于似然的估计推断关键流行病学参数。我们利用区域天气数据来确定可能的气候驱动对繁殖数量的影响 [公式: 见正文],并推断真正的ZIKV流行病动态。 发现和结论: GBS监测数据可用于研究ZIKV流行病,当对ZIKV报告率了解不甚了解时可能是合适的。估计ZIKV的总体感染罹患率 (IAR) 为人群的 24.1% (95% 置信区间: 17.1%-29.3%)。通过检查各种无症状情况,IAR很可能在两个ZIKV波上低于 33%。有症状的ZIKV感染发生GBS的风险率估计为 ρ = 0.0061% (95% CI: 0.0050%-0.0086%),明显低于目前的估计值。我们发现局部温度与基本繁殖数呈正相关,[公式: 见正文]。我们的分析显示,无症状感染影响ZIKV流行病的估计,在相关建模研究中也需要仔细考虑。根据估计的有效繁殖数量和人群易感性,我们认为ZIKV在不久的将来不太可能在巴西NE爆发。

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DOI:10.1080/09273948.2019.1597896
作者列表:["Apivatthakakul A","Kunavisarut P","Rothova A","Pathanapitoon K"]

METHODS::Purpose: To report on ocular Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH)-like syndrome under vemurafenib treatment for metastatic melanoma.Design: A case report.Method: Description of clinical and imaging manifestations including fundus photography, fluorescein, and indocyanine green angiography.Results: A 46-year-old Thai female was diagnosed with metastatic melanoma of the skin and had been treated with multiple surgical excisions, radiotherapy, and vemurafenib (initial dose 480 mg orally twice daily, subsequently increased to maximum dose of 960 mg twice daily). After 6 months of vemurafenib use, she complained of bilateral redness and photophobia and was diagnosed with bilateral anterior uveitis, which was topically treated. Two weeks later, her visual acuity (VA) sharply deteriorated to 20/80 and counting fingers. Ocular examination at that stage stronly resembled acute VKH disease. She exhibited intraocular inflammation, and her fundus examination revealed bilateral optic disc swelling and serous retinal detachment. Fluorescein angiogram showed disc leakage and multiple pinpoint hyperfluorescence leakage spots and indocyanine green demonstrated multiple hypofluorescent spots. Oral prednisolone 30 mg/day was commenced while vemurafenib medication was ceased. Three weeks later, her vision improved, and serous retinal detachment subsided. However, her cutaneous melanoma recurred.Conclusions: Vemurafenib, a potential adjunct treatment for metastatic melanoma, was complicated by the development of panuveitis, papillitis, and multiple serous detachments. These ocular symptoms were similar to the presentation of acute VKH syndrome.

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影响因子:2.19
发表时间:2020-01-01
DOI:10.1111/dmcn.14268
作者列表:["Crow YJ","Shetty J","Livingston JH"]

METHODS::Comprehensive reviews of the clinical characteristics and pathogenesis of Aicardi-Goutières syndrome (AGS), particularly its contextualization within a putative type I interferonopathy framework, already exist. However, recent reports of attempts at treatment suggest that an assessment of the field from a therapeutic perspective is warranted at this time. Here, we briefly summarize the neurological phenotypes associated with mutations in the seven genes so far associated with AGS, rehearse current knowledge of the pathology as it relates to possible treatment approaches, critically appraise the potential utility of therapies, and discuss the challenges in assessing clinical efficacy. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: Progress in understanding AGS disease pathogenesis has led to the first attempts at targeted treatment. Further rational therapies are expected to become available in the short- to medium-term.

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影响因子:1.52
发表时间:2020-04-02
DOI:10.1080/09273948.2019.1603312
作者列表:["Takayama K","Obata H","Takeuchi M"]

METHODS::Purpose: To report the efficacy of adalimumab in a case of chronic Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH) disease refractory to conventional corticosteroids and immunosuppressive therapy and complicated by central serous chorioretinopathy (CSC).Case report: A 66-year-old woman diagnosed with VKH was treated with intravenous corticosteroids followed by oral corticosteroids and cyclosporine. However, systemic corticosteroids could not be tapered because of recurrent ocular inflammation and systemic complications (diabetes mellitus, moon face, bone weakness), while CSC appeared in both eyes. A diagnosis of chronic VKH resistant to medications complicated by corticosteroid-induced CSC was made. Systemic corticosteroids and cyclosporine were tapered and adalimumab initiated. Bilateral ocular inflammation and CSC were gradually reduced and visual acuity improved without any adverse effect. Twelve months after starting adalimumab monotherapy, no signs of active VKH and CSC were present.Conclusions: Adalimumab is one of the effective therapeutic options for refractory VKH disease complicated with corticosteroid-induced adverse effects.

神经系统自身免疫性疾病方向

神经系统自身免疫性疾病是以自身免疫细胞、免疫分子等攻击神经系统为主要致病机制的自身免疫性疾病。在免疫反应中,作用于神经系统自身抗原的致病抗体统称为神经系统自身抗体。

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