Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.

预测SARS-CoV-2 在大流行后期的传播动态。

  • 影响因子:15.21
  • DOI:10.1126/science.abb5793
  • 作者列表:"Kissler SM","Tedijanto C","Goldstein E","Grad YH","Lipsitch M
  • 发表时间:2020-05-22

:It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.


: 迫切需要了解严重急性呼吸综合征-冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 传播的未来。我们使用来自美国的时间序列数据对人冠状病毒OC43 (HCoV-OC43) 和HCoV-HKU1 的季节性、免疫性和交叉免疫性进行估计,以告知SARS-CoV-2 传播模型。我们预计,在最初的、最严重的大流行浪潮之后,SARS-CoV-2 可能会再次爆发。在没有其他干预措施的情况下,社会疏远成功的一个关键指标是是否超过了重症监护能力。为了避免这种情况,长时间或间歇性的社交距离可能需要进入 2022。额外的干预措施,包括扩大重症监护能力和有效的治疗,将提高间歇性远离的成功,并加快群体免疫的获得。迫切需要进行纵向血清学研究,以确定对SARS-CoV-2 的免疫程度和持续时间。即使在明显消除的情况下,也应保持SARS-CoV-2 监测,因为疫情可能会死灰复燃至 2024。



作者列表:["Lim J","Jeon S","Shin HY","Kim MJ","Seong YM","Lee WJ","Choe KW","Kang YM","Lee B","Park SJ"]

METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.

作者列表:["Zhang W","Du RH","Li B","Zheng XS","Yang XL","Hu B","Wang YY","Xiao GF","Yan B","Shi ZL","Zhou P"]

METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.

翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.