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Clarification of Misleading Perceptions of COVID-19 Fatality and Testing Rates in Italy: Data Analysis.

澄清意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎病死率和检测率的误导性认识: 数据分析。

  • 影响因子:5.82
  • DOI:10.2196/19825
  • 作者列表:"Tosi D","Verde A","Verde M
  • 发表时间:2020-06-17
Abstract

BACKGROUND:The fatality rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Italy is controversial and is greatly affecting discussion on the impact of containment measures that are straining the world's social and economic fabric, such as instigating large-scale isolation and quarantine, closing borders, imposing limits on public gatherings, and implementing nationwide lockdowns. OBJECTIVE:The scientific community, citizens, politicians, and mass media are expressing concerns regarding data suggesting that the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Italy is significantly higher than in the rest of the world. Moreover, Italian citizens have misleading perceptions related to the number of swab tests that have actually been performed. Citizens and mass media are denouncing the coverage of COVID-19 swab testing in Italy, claiming that it is not in line with that in other countries worldwide. METHODS:In this paper, we attempt to clarify the aspects of COVID-19 fatalities and testing in Italy by performing a set of statistical analyses that highlight the actual numbers in Italy and compare them with official worldwide data. RESULTS:The analysis clearly shows that the Italian COVID-19 fatality and mortality rates are in line with the official world scenario, as are the numbers of COVID-19 tests performed in Italy and in the Lombardy region. CONCLUSIONS:This up-to-date analysis may elucidate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.

摘要

背景: 意大利冠状病毒病 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的死亡率是有争议的,并且极大地影响了关于遏制措施的影响的讨论,这些措施正在困扰着世界的社会和经济结构。如煽动大规模隔离检疫,关闭边境,限制公共集会,实行全国封锁。 目标: 科学界、公民、政治家和大众媒体对意大利COVID-19-related死亡人数明显高于世界其他地区的数据表示担忧。此外,意大利公民对实际进行的拭子测试的数量有误导性的看法。公民和大众媒体谴责意大利对新型冠状病毒肺炎拭子检测的报道,声称这与世界其他国家的报道不一致。 方法: 在本文中,我们试图通过进行一组统计分析来澄清意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡和测试的各个方面,这些分析突出了意大利的实际数字,并将其与全球官方数据进行了比较。 结果: 分析清楚地表明,意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎的死亡率和死亡率符合世界官方假设,意大利和伦巴第地区进行的新型冠状病毒肺炎试验数量也是如此。 结论: 这项最新的分析可能阐明意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的演变。

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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.48
发表时间:2020-04-01
来源期刊:Infection
DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.

呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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