Clarification of Misleading Perceptions of COVID-19 Fatality and Testing Rates in Italy: Data Analysis.
- 作者列表："Tosi D","Verde A","Verde M
BACKGROUND:The fatality rate of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Italy is controversial and is greatly affecting discussion on the impact of containment measures that are straining the world's social and economic fabric, such as instigating large-scale isolation and quarantine, closing borders, imposing limits on public gatherings, and implementing nationwide lockdowns. OBJECTIVE:The scientific community, citizens, politicians, and mass media are expressing concerns regarding data suggesting that the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Italy is significantly higher than in the rest of the world. Moreover, Italian citizens have misleading perceptions related to the number of swab tests that have actually been performed. Citizens and mass media are denouncing the coverage of COVID-19 swab testing in Italy, claiming that it is not in line with that in other countries worldwide. METHODS:In this paper, we attempt to clarify the aspects of COVID-19 fatalities and testing in Italy by performing a set of statistical analyses that highlight the actual numbers in Italy and compare them with official worldwide data. RESULTS:The analysis clearly shows that the Italian COVID-19 fatality and mortality rates are in line with the official world scenario, as are the numbers of COVID-19 tests performed in Italy and in the Lombardy region. CONCLUSIONS:This up-to-date analysis may elucidate the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
背景: 意大利冠状病毒病 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的死亡率是有争议的，并且极大地影响了关于遏制措施的影响的讨论，这些措施正在困扰着世界的社会和经济结构。如煽动大规模隔离检疫，关闭边境，限制公共集会，实行全国封锁。 目标: 科学界、公民、政治家和大众媒体对意大利COVID-19-related死亡人数明显高于世界其他地区的数据表示担忧。此外，意大利公民对实际进行的拭子测试的数量有误导性的看法。公民和大众媒体谴责意大利对新型冠状病毒肺炎拭子检测的报道，声称这与世界其他国家的报道不一致。 方法: 在本文中，我们试图通过进行一组统计分析来澄清意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎死亡和测试的各个方面，这些分析突出了意大利的实际数字，并将其与全球官方数据进行了比较。 结果: 分析清楚地表明，意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎的死亡率和死亡率符合世界官方假设，意大利和伦巴第地区进行的新型冠状病毒肺炎试验数量也是如此。 结论: 这项最新的分析可能阐明意大利新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的演变。
METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.
METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.
METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.