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Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

季节性强迫对SARS-CoV-2 大流行的潜在影响。

  • 影响因子:1.49
  • DOI:10.4414/smw.2020.20224
  • 作者列表:"Neher RA","Dyrdak R","Druelle V","Hodcroft EB","Albert J
  • 发表时间:2020-03-16
Abstract

:A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.

摘要

: 自 2019 年 12 月以来,在中国武汉首次发现的新型冠状病毒 (SARS-CoV-2) 迅速蔓延,导致 100,000 多名确诊感染病例和 4000 人死亡 (截至 2020 年 3 月 10 日)。世卫组织已于 2020 年 3 月 11 日宣布此次疫情为大流行。在这里,我们探讨传染性的季节性变化如何调节SARS-CoV-2 大流行。常规诊断数据显示 4 种地方性冠状病毒 (229E、HKU1 、NL63 、OC43) 的强烈和一致的季节变化,我们利用这些数据参数化了我们的模型进行SARS-CoV-2。该模型允许许多具有可变参数的不同大小的亚群。不同情景的模拟表明,合理的参数导致北半球温带地区 2020 年初出现一个小峰值,2020/2021 冬季出现一个更大的峰值。传播和迁移速率的变化可导致区域间流行率的实质性变化。虽然参数的不确定性很大,我们探索的情景表明,发病率的短暂减少可能是由于季节变化和感染控制努力的共同作用,但不一定意味着疫情得到遏制。因此,在进一步监测全球传播时,应考虑到季节性强迫SARS-CoV-2。季节变化、感染控制措施和传播率变化的可能聚集效应是一种长期的大流行波,在任何给定时间流行率较低,从而为卫生保健系统的更好准备提供了一个机会之窗。

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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.48
发表时间:2020-04-01
来源期刊:Infection
DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

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呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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