COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach.
意大利 60 天封锁后登记和恢复病例的新型冠状病毒肺炎病毒爆发预测: 数据驱动模型方法。
- 作者列表："Chintalapudi N","Battineni G","Amenta F
BACKGROUND:Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days. METHODS:COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done. RESULTS:Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May. CONCLUSIONS:This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible.
背景: 截止到 2020 年 3 月 31 日，意大利共确诊 105,792 例新型冠状病毒肺炎病例，包括 15,726 例死亡病例。在 2020 年 3 月 9 日意大利宣布封锁后，自 3 月最后几天以来，局势变得稳定。鉴于此，重要的是要预测新型冠状病毒肺炎评估意大利的状况和可能的影响，如果这种锁定可以继续 60 天。 方法: 从意大利卫生部网站上提取的新型冠状病毒肺炎感染患者数据包括 2 月中旬至 3 月底的登记病例和康复病例。采用R统计模型的季节性ARIMA预测包。 结果: 以注册病例模型 93.75% 的准确性和恢复病例模型 84.4% 的准确性进行预测。到 5 月底，感染患者的预测值可达到 182,757，康复病例可达到 81,635 的登记值。 结论: 本研究通过数据驱动的模型分析，强调了国家封锁和自我隔离在控制意大利人群疾病传染性中的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，登记病例减少近 35%，恢复病例增加 66% 是可能的。
METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.
METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.
METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.