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COVID-19 virus outbreak forecasting of registered and recovered cases after sixty day lockdown in Italy: A data driven model approach.

意大利 60 天封锁后登记和恢复病例的新型冠状病毒肺炎病毒爆发预测: 数据驱动模型方法。

  • 影响因子:1.86
  • DOI:10.1016/j.jmii.2020.04.004
  • 作者列表:"Chintalapudi N","Battineni G","Amenta F
  • 发表时间:2020-06-01
Abstract

BACKGROUND:Till 31 March 2020, 105,792 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Italy including 15,726 deaths which explains how worst the epidemic has affected the country. After the announcement of lockdown in Italy on 9 March 2020, situation was becoming stable since last days of March. In view of this, it is important to forecast the COVID-19 evaluation of Italy condition and the possible effects, if this lock down could continue for another 60 days. METHODS:COVID-19 infected patient data has extracted from the Italian Health Ministry website includes registered and recovered cases from mid February to end March. Adoption of seasonal ARIMA forecasting package with R statistical model was done. RESULTS:Predictions were done with 93.75% of accuracy for registered case models and 84.4% of accuracy for recovered case models. The forecasting of infected patients could be reach the value of 182,757, and recovered cases could be registered value of 81,635 at end of May. CONCLUSIONS:This study highlights the importance of country lockdown and self isolation in control the disease transmissibility among Italian population through data driven model analysis. Our findings suggest that nearly 35% decrement of registered cases and 66% growth of recovered cases will be possible.

摘要

背景: 截止到 2020 年 3 月 31 日,意大利共确诊 105,792 例新型冠状病毒肺炎病例,包括 15,726 例死亡病例。在 2020 年 3 月 9 日意大利宣布封锁后,自 3 月最后几天以来,局势变得稳定。鉴于此,重要的是要预测新型冠状病毒肺炎评估意大利的状况和可能的影响,如果这种锁定可以继续 60 天。 方法: 从意大利卫生部网站上提取的新型冠状病毒肺炎感染患者数据包括 2 月中旬至 3 月底的登记病例和康复病例。采用R统计模型的季节性ARIMA预测包。 结果: 以注册病例模型 93.75% 的准确性和恢复病例模型 84.4% 的准确性进行预测。到 5 月底,感染患者的预测值可达到 182,757,康复病例可达到 81,635 的登记值。 结论: 本研究通过数据驱动的模型分析,强调了国家封锁和自我隔离在控制意大利人群疾病传染性中的重要性。我们的研究结果表明,登记病例减少近 35%,恢复病例增加 66% 是可能的。

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DOI:10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e79
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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.48
发表时间:2020-04-01
来源期刊:Infection
DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.

呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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