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Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020.

2019-2020 年中国 2019-传染性新冠肺炎变化及其潜在因素分析.

  • 影响因子:2.41
  • DOI:10.1155/2020/3842470
  • 作者列表:"Zhao Y","Wang R","Li J","Zhang Y","Yang H","Zhao Y
  • 发表时间:2020-05-18
Abstract

Background:Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China. Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP. Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies. Method:By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R0t proposed by Cori et al. (2013), we use R0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020. In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively. The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19. Results:The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec. 8, 2019, to Feb. 9, 2020. The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R0t ) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27, respectively. After reaching a peak on Jan. 27, R0t showed a continuous decline trend. On Feb. 9, R0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1. We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R0t . We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R0t . Conclusion:The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R0t is still larger than the threshold 1. The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potential infection in Wuhan. Meanwhile, since Jan. 18, 2020, the people successively accessed COVID-19-related information via the Internet, which may help to effectively implement the government's prevention and control strategy and contribute to reducing the transmissibility of NCP. Therefore, ongoing travel restriction and public health awareness remain essential to provide a foundation for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19.

摘要

背景: 最近,一场大规模的新型冠状病毒肺炎(NCP) 爆发席卷中国。截至 2020 年 2 月 9 日,共有 40,260 名患者被诊断为NCP,23,589 名患者被怀疑感染了 2019 新型冠状病毒 (新型冠状病毒肺炎),这对我国的公共卫生和临床治疗提出了巨大的挑战。直到现在,我们正处于NCP的高发季节。因此,分析NCP的传染性变化及其潜在因素,可为制定有效的防控策略提供可靠的参考依据。 方法: 采用Cori et al. (2013) 提出的计算瞬时基本再生数R0t的方法,用R0t描述中国传染性的新型冠状病毒肺炎变化,2019-2020。此外,选择百度指数 (BDI) 和百度迁移量表 (BMS) 来衡量公众意识和武汉禁闭 (疫区武汉流出的限制人员) 的效果战略,分别。通过格兰杰因果test (GCT),探讨了公众意识、武汉封锁战略的效果和传染性的新型冠状病毒肺炎之间的关系。 结果: 2019 年 12 月 8 日至 20 20 0 年 2 月 9 日期间,中国NCP的平均基本繁殖次数为 3.44 次,95% CI (2.87,4.0)。瞬时基本再生数 (R0t) 有两个波,分别在 1 月 8 日和 1 月 27 日达到峰值。在 1 月 27 日达到峰值后,R0t呈持续下降趋势。2 月 9 日,R0t已降至 1。68 (95% CI: 1。66 、 1.7),但仍大于 1。我们发现公众意识与传染性 1 9 的新型冠状病毒肺炎变化之间存在显著负相关,累积BDI增加一个单位导致 0.0295% 的下降 (95% CI: 0.0077,0.051) R0t。我们还发现武汉禁闭策略的效果与传染性变化新型冠状病毒肺炎显著负相关,BMS减少一个单位可能导致下降 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382,4.97) R0t。 结论: 现行的防治措施有效地降低了传染性的新型冠状病毒肺炎; 而R0t仍大于阈值 1。结果表明,政府采取 “武汉禁闭” 策略,通过快速控制武汉地区的潜在感染者,在控制潜在感染者从疫区流出、避免全国范围内传播等方面发挥了重要作用。武汉。同时,自 2020 年 1 月 18 日以来,人们陆续通过互联网访问COVID-19-related信息,这可能有助于政府防控战略的有效实施,并有助于降低NCP的传染性。因此,持续的旅行限制和公众健康意识仍然是控制新型冠状病毒肺炎爆发的基础。

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DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
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呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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