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The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran.

伊朗Shahroud新型冠状病毒 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的基本繁殖数和流行规模预测。

  • 影响因子:2.04
  • DOI:10.1017/S0950268820001247
  • 作者列表:"Khosravi A","Chaman R","Rohani-Rasaf M","Zare F","Mehravaran S","Emamian MH
  • 发表时间:2020-06-10
Abstract

:The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using 'earlyR' and 'projections' packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1-3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178-383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46-67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48-136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.

摘要

: 本研究的目的是估计疫情早期基本传染数的基本生殖数 (新型冠状病毒肺炎),并预测伊朗东北部沙赫鲁德的预计新病例数。采用序列区间分布和发病例数估计基本传染数的新型冠状病毒肺炎。使用每日发病率遵循由每日传染性确定的泊松分布的假设预测 30 天可能发病率和累积发病率。使用R软件中的 'earlyr' 和 'projections' 软件包进行数据分析。基本传染数的最大似然值为 2.7 (95% 置信区间 (CI): 2.1-3.4) 新型冠状病毒肺炎在早期 14 天流行,到第 42 天结束时降至 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25)。Shahroud的预期平均新发病例数为 9.0 ± 3.8 例/天,这意味着估计总数为 271 例 (95% CI: 178-383) 2020 年 4 月 2 日至 5 月 3 日期间的新病例。到第 67 天 (27 4 月),有下降趋势且在 1 左右的有效繁殖数 (Rt) 减少至 0.70。根据过去 21 天 (流行的第 46-67 天) 的Rt,4 月 27 日至 5 月 26 日的预测是平均每日病例 2.9 ± 2.0,新发病例 87 例 (48-136)。为了将R保持在 1 以下,我们强烈建议执行和继续目前的预防措施,限制旅行,并为更大比例的人群提供筛查检测。

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呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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