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Simulating social distancing measures in household and close contact transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

模拟家庭和密切接触者传播中的社会疏远措施SARS-CoV-2。

  • 影响因子:1.02
  • DOI:10.1590/0102-311X00099920
  • 作者列表:"Garcia Filho C
  • 发表时间:2020-06-05
Abstract

:We sought to evaluate contact rate reduction goals for household and close contacts and to provide preventive recommendations during the coronavirus pandemic. We applied an agent-based model to simulate the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within household or close contacts through a social network of 150 nodes. there is no great difference in total infected people within modifications in number of links per node for networks with average number of links per node greater than three. For six nodes, total infected people are 149.85; for five nodes, 148.97; and for four nodes, 141.57. On the other hand, for three nodes, total infected are 82.39, for two nodes, 13.95; and for one node, 2.96. This model indicates a possible pitfall if social distancing measures are not stepwise suspended and close surveillance of cases are not provided, since the relationship between average links per node and number of infected people seems to be s-shaped, and not linear.

摘要

: 我们试图评估家庭和密切接触者的接触率降低目标,并在冠状病毒大流行期间提供预防建议。我们应用基于代理的模型,通过 150 个节点的社交网络,模拟家庭或密切接触者中SARS-CoV-2 的传播动态。对于平均每个节点的链接数大于 3 的网络,每个节点的链接数修改范围内的总感染人数没有很大差异。对于六个节点,总感染者为 149.85; 对于五个节点,148.97; 对于四个节点,141.57。另一方面,对于三个节点,总感染为 82.39,对于两个节点,13.95; 对于一个节点,2.96。这一模型表明,如果不逐步中止社会疏远措施,不提供病例密切监测,可能会有陷阱,由于每个节点的平均链接和感染人数之间的关系似乎是s形的,而不是线性的。

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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.48
发表时间:2020-04-01
来源期刊:Infection
DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

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呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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