Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
温度、湿度和纬度分析，以估计冠状病毒疾病 2019 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的潜在传播和季节性。
- 作者列表："Sajadi MM","Habibzadeh P","Vintzileos A","Shokouhi S","Miralles-Wilhelm F","Amoroso A
Importance:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective:To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants:This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures:Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results:The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance:In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.
重要性: 冠状病毒病 2019 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 感染导致全球危机。调查气候和季节性与这种感染传播的潜在关联可能有助于预防和监测策略。 目的: 探讨气候与新型冠状病毒肺炎传播的关系。 设计、设置和参与者: 这项队列研究检查了来自全球 50 个城市的气候数据，这些城市有或没有实质性的新型冠状病毒肺炎社区传播。新型冠状病毒肺炎大幅蔓延的八个城市 (中国武汉; 日本东京; 韩国大邱; 伊朗库姆; 意大利米兰; 法国巴黎; 美国西雅图和马德里，西班牙) 与 42 个没有受到影响或没有实质性社区传播的城市进行了比较。数据收集时间为 2020 年 1 月至 3 月 10 日。 主要结果和措施: 实质性社区传播定义为截至 2020 年 3 月 10 日，一个国家至少报告了 10 例死亡。从ERA-5 再分析中获得气候数据 (纬度、平均 2-m温度、平均比湿度和平均相对湿度)。 结果: 截至 2020 年 3 月 10 日，8 个具有实质性社区分布的城市位于窄波段，大致位于 30 ° N至 50 ° N走廊上。他们一直有相似的天气模式，包括 5 到 11 ℃ 的平均温度，加上低比湿度 (3-6 克/公斤) 和低绝对湿度 (4-7 克/立方米)。在邻近的预期地点缺乏实质性的社区建设。例如，中国武汉 (30.8 ° N) 有 3136 人死亡，80 757 例，俄罗斯莫斯科 (56.0 ° N) 有 0 人死亡，10 例，河内，越南 (21.2 ° N)，0 例死亡，31 例。 结论和相关性: 在本研究中，沿限制纬度、温度和湿度测量的大量社区新型冠状病毒肺炎暴发的分布与季节性呼吸道病毒的行为一致。使用天气模型，有可能估计在未来几周内最有可能处于大量社区新型冠状病毒肺炎传播风险较高的地区，允许公共卫生工作集中在监测和遏制上。
METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.
METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.
METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.