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An artificially simulated outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease.

人工模拟呼吸道传染病的爆发。

  • 影响因子:2.94
  • DOI:10.1186/s12889-020-8243-6
  • 作者列表:"Guo Z","Xu S","Tong L","Dai B","Liu Y","Xiao D
  • 发表时间:2020-01-30
Abstract

BACKGROUND:Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. METHODS:We established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named "the random collision model", and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed. RESULTS:Once the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0 = 3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84-8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and - 0.27, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.

摘要

背景: 呼吸道传染病暴发往往发生在人员密集的场所。了解一起呼吸道传染病暴发流行的传播规律,为有针对性地实施科学防控提供理论依据,我们试图建立一个随机模型来模拟一个军营的呼吸道传染病爆发。该模型拟合了疾病传播的一般模式,进一步丰富了传染病传播动力学理论。 方法: 我们建立了一个 500 人在军营中暴露于腺病毒 7 型 (ADV 7) 的封闭系统。在感染期间,患者将病毒随机传播给易感人群。利用 “随机碰撞模型” 的计算机模型,模拟了军事化管理模式下的疫情传播,研究了基本繁殖数 (基本传染数) 、时间隔离的患者 (TOI),间隔发病至隔离 (IOI),预防接种率 (IR)对疫情的发展趋势进行了定量分析。 结果: 一旦基本传染数超过 1.5,中位罹患率急剧增加; 当基本传染数 = 3 时,随着TOI的延迟,罹患率逐渐增加并最终保持稳定。当IOI超过 2.3 天时,中位罹患率也急剧增加。当IR超过 0.5 时,中位罹患率接近零。中位世代时间为 8.26 天,(95% 置信区间 [CI]: 7.84-8.69 天)。疫情罹患率与基本传染数、TOI、IOI和IR的偏秩相关系数分别为 0.61 、 0.17 、 0.45 和 0.27。 结论: 随机碰撞模型不仅以较高的精度模拟了流行病的传播方式,而且在设置暴露人群和不同类型传染病的活动方面具有更大的灵活性,有利于进一步探索疫情暴发的流行病学特征。

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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.48
发表时间:2020-04-01
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DOI:10.1007/s15010-020-01401-y
作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.

呼吸道感染方向

呼吸道感染分为上呼吸道感染与下呼吸道感染。上呼吸道感染是指自鼻腔至喉部之间的急性炎症的总称,是最常见的感染性疾病。下呼吸道感染是最常见的感染性疾患,治疗时必须明确引起感染的病原体以选择有效的抗生素。

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