Failure in initial stage containment of global COVID-19 epicenters.


  • 影响因子:1.94
  • DOI:10.1002/jmv.25883
  • 作者列表:"Khosrawipour V","Lau H","Khosrawipour T","Kocbach P","Ichii H","Bania J","Mikolajczyk A
  • 发表时间:2020-07-01

:With multiple virus epicenters, COVID-19 has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Consequently, many countries have implemented different policies to manage this crisis including curfew and lockdown. However, the efficacy of individual policies remains unclear with respect to COVID-19 case development. We analyzed available data on COVID-19 cases of eight majorly affected countries, including China, Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Spain, South Korea, and Japan. Growth rates and doubling time of cases were calculated for the first 6 weeks after the initial cases were declared for each respective country and put into context with implemented policies. Although the growth rate of total confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has decreased, those for Japan have remained constant. For European countries, the growth rate of COVID-19 cases considerably increased during the second time interval. Interestingly, the rates for Germany, Spain, and France are the highest measured in the second interval and even surpass the numbers in Italy. Although the initial data in Asian countries are encouraging with respect to case development at the initial stage, the opposite is true for European countries. Based on our data, disease management in the 2 weeks following the first reported cases is of utmost importance.


: 由于存在多种病毒的震中,新型冠状病毒肺炎已被世界卫生组织宣布为大流行。因此,许多国家实施了不同的政策来管理这场危机,包括宵禁和封锁。然而,个别政策在新型冠状病毒肺炎案例发展方面的效力仍然不清楚。我们分析了中国、意大利、伊朗、德国、法国、西班牙、韩国和日本等 8 个主要受影响国家的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的现有数据。在每个国家申报初始病例后的前 6 周,计算病例的增长率和倍增时间,并结合已实施的政策。虽然中国的新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例总数的增长率有所下降,但日本的病例仍然保持不变。对于欧洲国家,新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的增长率在第二个时间间隔内大幅增加。有趣的是,德国、西班牙和法国的利率在第二个区间是最高的,甚至超过了意大利的数字。虽然亚洲国家的初始数据在初始阶段的案例发展方面令人鼓舞,但欧洲国家的情况恰恰相反。根据我们的数据,在首次报告病例后 2 周内的疾病管理至关重要。



作者列表:["Lim J","Jeon S","Shin HY","Kim MJ","Seong YM","Lee WJ","Choe KW","Kang YM","Lee B","Park SJ"]

METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.

作者列表:["Zhang W","Du RH","Li B","Zheng XS","Yang XL","Hu B","Wang YY","Xiao GF","Yan B","Shi ZL","Zhou P"]

METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.

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作者列表:["Cheng ZJ","Shan J"]

METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.