- 作者列表："Hoseinpour Dehkordi A","Alizadeh M","Derakhshan P","Babazadeh P","Jahandideh A
:The 2019 novel-coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries with approximately 1197405 confirmed cases (by 5th April). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which got affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies are critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show that more than 80% of infected are mild cases of disease, around 14% of infected have severe complications, and about 5% are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (5th April 2020; daily updates in the prepared website) shows that the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092, respectively. Calculating the total case fatality rate (CFR) of Italy (4th April 2020), about 13.3% of confirmed cases have passed away. Compared with South Korea's rate of 1.8% (seven times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. Some effective policies that yielded significant changes in the trend of cases were the lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), the shutdown of all nonessential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.
: 2019 新型冠状病毒 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 已影响 181 个国家，约 1197405 确诊病例 (截至 4 月 5 日)。了解每个国家每天受影响的感染传播动态，评估控制政策的有效性，对我们进一步采取行动至关重要。迄今为止，新型冠状病毒肺炎报告的病例统计表明，80% 以上的感染者是轻症病例，约 14% 的感染者有严重并发症，约 5% 被归类为危重症患者。今天的报告 (2020 年 4 月 5 日; 准备的网站每日更新) 显示，美国，西班牙，意大利和德国的确诊病例的新型冠状病毒肺炎为 308850，126168，124632，和 96092，分别。计算意大利的总病死率 (CFR) (2020 年 4 月 4 日)，大约 13.3% 的确诊病例已经去世。与韩国的 1.8% (比意大利低 7 倍) 和中国的 4% (比意大利低 69%) 相比，意大利的CFR过高。一些导致病例趋势显著变化的有效政策是中国、意大利和西班牙的封锁政策 (几天后观察到的效果)，湖北所有非必要公司的关闭 (5 天后观察到的效果)，韩国的联合政策，以及减少伊朗的工作时间。
METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.
METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.
METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.