- 作者列表："Barrett K","Khan YA","Mac S","Ximenes R","Naimark DMJ","Sander B
BACKGROUND:The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing substantial strain to health care systems. The purpose of our study was to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and use of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. METHODS:We developed an individual-level simulation to model the flow of patients with COVID-19 through the hospital system in Ontario. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectory and hospital health care capacity. Our outcomes included the number of patients who needed admission to the ward or to the intensive care unit (ICU) with or without the need for mechanical ventilation, number of days to resource depletion, number of patients awaiting resources and number of deaths. RESULTS:We found that with effective early public health measures, hospital system resources would not be depleted. For scenarios with late or ineffective implementation of physical distancing, hospital resources would be depleted within 14-26 days, and in the worst case scenario, 13 321 patients would die while waiting for needed resources. Resource depletion would be avoided or delayed with aggressive measures to increase ICU, ventilator and acute care hospital capacities. INTERPRETATION:We found that without aggressive physical distancing measures, the Ontario hospital system would have been inadequately equipped to manage the expected number of patients with COVID-19 despite a rapid increase in capacity. This lack of hospital resources would have led to an increase in mortality. By slowing the spread of the disease using public health measures and by increasing hospital capacity, Ontario may have avoided catastrophic stresses to its hospitals.
背景: 冠状病毒疾病 2019 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的全球传播在多个司法管辖区继续，对卫生保健系统造成重大压力。我们研究的目的是预测加拿大安大略省新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行对患者预后和医院资源使用的影响。 方法: 我们开发了一个个体水平的模拟，通过安大略省的医院系统对新型冠状病毒肺炎患者的流动进行建模。我们模拟了流行病轨迹和医院保健能力的不同组合场景。我们的结果包括需要进入病房或重症监护病房 (ICU) 的患者人数，是否需要机械通气，资源消耗的天数，等待资源的患者数量和死亡人数。 结果: 我们发现，有了有效的早期公共卫生措施，医院系统资源不会枯竭。对于物理距离实施较晚或无效的场景，医院资源将在 14-26 天内耗尽，在最坏的情况下，13 321 名患者将在等待所需资源时死亡。通过积极的措施来增加ICU、呼吸机和急症护理医院的能力，可以避免或推迟资源消耗。 解释: 我们发现，如果没有积极的物理距离措施，安大略省医院系统将没有足够的设备来管理预期数量的新型冠状病毒肺炎患者，尽管容量迅速增加。医院资源的缺乏会导致死亡率的增加。通过使用公共卫生措施减缓疾病的传播和增加医院容量，安大略省可能避免了对其医院的灾难性压力。
METHODS::Since mid-December of 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has been spreading from Wuhan, China. The confirmed COVID-19 patients in South Korea are those who came from or visited China. As secondary transmissions have occurred and the speed of transmission is accelerating, there are rising concerns about community infections. The 54-year old male is the third patient diagnosed with COVID-19 infection in Korea. He is a worker for a clothing business and had mild respiratory symptoms and intermittent fever in the beginning of hospitalization, and pneumonia symptoms on chest computerized tomography scan on day 6 of admission. This patient caused one case of secondary transmission and three cases of tertiary transmission. Hereby, we report the clinical findings of the index patient who was the first to cause tertiary transmission outside China. Interestingly, after lopinavir/ritonavir (Kaletra, AbbVie) was administered, β-coronavirus viral loads significantly decreased and no or little coronavirus titers were observed.
METHODS::In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused an outbreak in Wuhan, China, and soon spread to other parts of the world. It was believed that 2019-nCoV was transmitted through respiratory tract and then induced pneumonia, thus molecular diagnosis based on oral swabs was used for confirmation of this disease. Likewise, patient will be released upon two times of negative detection from oral swabs. However, many coronaviruses can also be transmitted through oral-fecal route by infecting intestines. Whether 2019-nCoV infected patients also carry virus in other organs like intestine need to be tested. We conducted investigation on patients in a local hospital who were infected with this virus. We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral-fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.
METHODS::There is a current worldwide outbreak of a new type of coronavirus (2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 17 other countries. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak sites and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the virology, epidemiology, clinical management strategies from both English and Chinese literature, official news channels, and other official government documents. In addition, by fitting the number of infections with a single-term exponential model, we report that the infection is spreading at an exponential rate, with a doubling period of 1.8 days.