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Prediction of Number of Cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Using Social Media Search Index.

使用社交媒体搜索指数预测 2019 年新型冠状病毒 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的病例数。

  • 影响因子:2.81
  • DOI:10.3390/ijerph17072365
  • 作者列表:"Qin L","Sun Q","Wang Y","Wu KF","Chen M","Shia BC","Wu SY
  • 发表时间:2020-03-31
Abstract

:Predicting the number of new suspected or confirmed cases of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is crucial in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak. Social media search indexes (SMSI) for dry cough, fever, chest distress, coronavirus, and pneumonia were collected from 31 December 2019 to 9 February 2020. The new suspected cases of COVID-19 data were collected from 20 January 2020 to 9 February 2020. We used the lagged series of SMSI to predict new suspected COVID-19 case numbers during this period. To avoid overfitting, five methods, namely subset selection, forward selection, lasso regression, ridge regression, and elastic net, were used to estimate coefficients. We selected the optimal method to predict new suspected COVID-19 case numbers from 20 January 2020 to 9 February 2020. We further validated the optimal method for new confirmed cases of COVID-19 from 31 December 2019 to 17 February 2020. The new suspected COVID-19 case numbers correlated significantly with the lagged series of SMSI. SMSI could be detected 6-9 days earlier than new suspected cases of COVID-19. The optimal method was the subset selection method, which had the lowest estimation error and a moderate number of predictors. The subset selection method also significantly correlated with the new confirmed COVID-19 cases after validation. SMSI findings on lag day 10 were significantly correlated with new confirmed COVID-19 cases. SMSI could be a significant predictor of the number of COVID-19 infections. SMSI could be an effective early predictor, which would enable governments' health departments to locate potential and high-risk outbreak areas.

摘要

预测新的疑似或确诊病例新型冠状病毒疾病 2019 (新型冠状病毒肺炎) 的数量对于预防和控制新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情至关重要。从 2019 年 12 月 31 日至 20 20 年 2 月 9 日,收集干咳、发热、胸闷、冠状病毒和肺炎的社交媒体搜索索引 (SMSI)。疑似病例数据的新新型冠状病毒肺炎收集时间为 2020 年 1 月 20 日至 20 年 2 月 9 日。我们使用SMSI的滞后系列来预测在此期间新的疑似新型冠状病毒肺炎病例数。为了避免过拟合,使用了 5 种方法,即子集选择、正向选择、lasso回归、岭回归和弹性网来估计系数。我们选择最佳方法来预测 2020 年 1 月 20 日至 20 年 2 月 9 日的新疑似新型冠状病毒肺炎病例数。我们进一步验证了 2019 年 12 月 31 日至 20 年 2 月 17 日确诊病例新新型冠状病毒肺炎的最佳方法。新的疑似新型冠状病毒肺炎病例数与SMSI的滞后系列显著相关。SMSI可以比疑似病例的新新型冠状病毒肺炎早 6-9 天被检测到。最优的方法是子集选择方法,其具有最低的估计误差和中等数量的预测。子集选择方法也与验证后的新确认的新型冠状病毒肺炎例显著相关。延迟第 10 天的SMSI发现与新确诊的新型冠状病毒肺炎例病例显著相关。SMSI可能是新型冠状病毒肺炎感染数量的重要预测因子。SMSI可能是一个有效的早期预测,这将使政府卫生部门能够找到潜在的和高风险的爆发地区。

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影响因子:14.71
发表时间:2020-02-01
来源期刊:Nature immunology
DOI:10.1038/s41590-019-0571-2
作者列表:["Adrover JM","Aroca-Crevillén A","Crainiciuc G","Ostos F","Rojas-Vega Y","Rubio-Ponce A","Cilloniz C","Bonzón-Kulichenko E","Calvo E","Rico D","Moro MA","Weber C","Lizasoaín I","Torres A","Ruiz-Cabello J","Vázquez J","Hidalgo A"]

METHODS::The antimicrobial functions of neutrophils are facilitated by a defensive armamentarium of proteins stored in granules, and by the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). However, the toxic nature of these structures poses a threat to highly vascularized tissues, such as the lungs. Here, we identified a cell-intrinsic program that modified the neutrophil proteome in the circulation and caused the progressive loss of granule content and reduction of the NET-forming capacity. This program was driven by the receptor CXCR2 and by regulators of circadian cycles. As a consequence, lungs were protected from inflammatory injury at times of day or in mouse mutants in which granule content was low. Changes in the proteome, granule content and NET formation also occurred in human neutrophils, and correlated with the incidence and severity of respiratory distress in pneumonia patients. Our findings unveil a 'disarming' strategy of neutrophils that depletes protein stores to reduce the magnitude of inflammation.

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影响因子:2.81
发表时间:2020-01-05
DOI:10.3390/ijerph17010356
作者列表:["Yang LC","Suen YJ","Wang YH","Lin TC","Yu HC","Chang YC"]

METHODS::Pneumonia is a common respiratory infectious disease that involves the inflammation of the pulmonary parenchyma. Periodontal disease is widespread and correlated with pneumonia. However, the relationship between periodontal treatment and clinical infectious outcomes in patients with pneumonia has remained undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between periodontal treatment and the risk of pneumonia events in the Taiwanese population. A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). A total of 49,400 chronic periodontitis patients who received periodontal treatment from 2001 to 2012 were selected. In addition, 49,400 healthy individuals without periodontal diseases were picked randomly from the general population after propensity score matching according to age, gender, monthly income, urbanization, and comorbidities. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was adopted to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of pneumonia between the periodontal treatment cohort and the comparison cohort. The average ages of the periodontal treatment and comparison groups were 44.25 ± 14.82 years and 44.15 ± 14.5 years, respectively. The follow up durations were 7.66 and 7.41 years for the periodontal treatment and comparison groups, respectively. We found 2504 and 1922 patients with newly diagnosed pneumonia in the comparison cohort and the periodontal treatment cohort, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier plot revealed that the cumulative incidence of pneumonia was significantly lower over the 12 year follow-up period in the periodontal treatment group (using the log-rank test, p < 0.001). In conclusion, this nationwide population-based study indicated that the patients with periodontal treatment exhibited a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than the general population.

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影响因子:2.89
发表时间:2020-04-01
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.038
作者列表:["Ngocho JS","Horumpende PG","de Jonge MI","Mmbaga BT"]

METHODS:OBJECTIVE:To describe the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children under five years in Tanzania. METHODS:Between January and December 2017, children aged 2-59 months with chest radiography-confirmed CAP were enrolled. The parents were interviewed to collect information on the patients and home-based medication. Clinical information was derived from the patient files. Nasopharyngeal swab and blood samples were collected for isolation of the causative pathogens. Swab samples were analysed by quantitative PCR whereas blood samples were tested using BacT/Alert 3D. RESULTS:Overall, 109 children with CAP were included in this analysis. Provision of care to most children was delayed (median = 4.6 days). A quarter (26.6%) were given unprescribed/leftover antibiotics at home. Only one child had positive bacterial culture. Referrals were associated with nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (p = 0.003) and Haemophilus influenzae (p = 0.004). Of all admitted children, more than a quarter (n = 29) did not need to be hospitalised and inappropriately received injectable instead of oral antibiotics. CONCLUSION:We found high rates of home treatment, particularly with antibiotics. Appropriate health care was delayed for most children because of home treatment. Efforts are needed at the community level to improve awareness of antimicrobial resistance.

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肺炎方向

肺炎是指终末气道、肺泡和肺间质的炎症。可由细菌、病毒、真菌、寄生虫等致病微生物,以及放射线、吸入性异物等理化因素引起。临床主要症状为发热、咳嗽、咳痰、痰中带血,可伴胸痛或呼吸困难等。

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