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Advice from a systems-biology model of the corona epidemics.

来自电晕流行病的系统生物学模型的建议。

  • 影响因子:0.0000
  • DOI:10.1038/s41540-020-0138-8
  • 作者列表:"Westerhoff HV","Kolodkin AN
  • 发表时间:2020-06-12
Abstract

:Using standard systems biology methodologies a 14-compartment dynamic model was developed for the Corona virus epidemic. The model predicts that: (i) it will be impossible to limit lockdown intensity such that sufficient herd immunity develops for this epidemic to die down, (ii) the death toll from the SARS-CoV-2 virus decreases very strongly with increasing intensity of the lockdown, but (iii) the duration of the epidemic increases at first with that intensity and then decreases again, such that (iv) it may be best to begin with selecting a lockdown intensity beyond the intensity that leads to the maximum duration, (v) an intermittent lockdown strategy should also work and might be more acceptable socially and economically, (vi) an initially intensive but adaptive lockdown strategy should be most efficient, both in terms of its low number of casualties and shorter duration, (vii) such an adaptive lockdown strategy offers the advantage of being robust to unexpected imports of the virus, e.g. due to international travel, (viii) the eradication strategy may still be superior as it leads to even fewer deaths and a shorter period of economic downturn, but should have the adaptive strategy as backup in case of unexpected infection imports, (ix) earlier detection of infections is the most effective way in which the epidemic can be controlled, whilst waiting for vaccines.

摘要

: 使用标准的系统生物学方法 14 舱动力学模型建立了电晕病毒流行.该模型预测 :( i) 不可能限制锁定强度,以便为这种流行病的死亡发展足够的群体免疫力,(ii) SARS-CoV-2 病毒的死亡人数随着封锁强度的增加而显著下降,但是 (iii)流行的持续时间首先随着该强度增加,然后再次减少,因此 (iv) 最好从选择超过导致最大持续时间的强度的锁定强度开始,(v)间歇性锁定策略也应该起作用,并且可能在社会和经济上更容易接受,(vi) 最初密集但适应性锁定策略应该是最有效的,就其伤亡人数低和持续时间较短而言,(vii)这种适应性锁定策略提供了对病毒的意外输入 (例如由于国际旅行) 具有鲁棒性的优点,(viii) 根除战略可能仍然更好,因为它会导致更少的死亡和更短的经济低迷期,但在意外感染进口的情况下,应该有适应性策略作为备用。(ix) 在等待疫苗的同时,早期检测感染是控制流行病的最有效方式。

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影响因子:14.71
发表时间:2020-02-01
来源期刊:Nature immunology
DOI:10.1038/s41590-019-0571-2
作者列表:["Adrover JM","Aroca-Crevillén A","Crainiciuc G","Ostos F","Rojas-Vega Y","Rubio-Ponce A","Cilloniz C","Bonzón-Kulichenko E","Calvo E","Rico D","Moro MA","Weber C","Lizasoaín I","Torres A","Ruiz-Cabello J","Vázquez J","Hidalgo A"]

METHODS::The antimicrobial functions of neutrophils are facilitated by a defensive armamentarium of proteins stored in granules, and by the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). However, the toxic nature of these structures poses a threat to highly vascularized tissues, such as the lungs. Here, we identified a cell-intrinsic program that modified the neutrophil proteome in the circulation and caused the progressive loss of granule content and reduction of the NET-forming capacity. This program was driven by the receptor CXCR2 and by regulators of circadian cycles. As a consequence, lungs were protected from inflammatory injury at times of day or in mouse mutants in which granule content was low. Changes in the proteome, granule content and NET formation also occurred in human neutrophils, and correlated with the incidence and severity of respiratory distress in pneumonia patients. Our findings unveil a 'disarming' strategy of neutrophils that depletes protein stores to reduce the magnitude of inflammation.

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翻译标题与摘要 下载文献
影响因子:2.81
发表时间:2020-01-05
DOI:10.3390/ijerph17010356
作者列表:["Yang LC","Suen YJ","Wang YH","Lin TC","Yu HC","Chang YC"]

METHODS::Pneumonia is a common respiratory infectious disease that involves the inflammation of the pulmonary parenchyma. Periodontal disease is widespread and correlated with pneumonia. However, the relationship between periodontal treatment and clinical infectious outcomes in patients with pneumonia has remained undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between periodontal treatment and the risk of pneumonia events in the Taiwanese population. A nationwide population-based cohort study was conducted using data from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). A total of 49,400 chronic periodontitis patients who received periodontal treatment from 2001 to 2012 were selected. In addition, 49,400 healthy individuals without periodontal diseases were picked randomly from the general population after propensity score matching according to age, gender, monthly income, urbanization, and comorbidities. The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was adopted to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of pneumonia between the periodontal treatment cohort and the comparison cohort. The average ages of the periodontal treatment and comparison groups were 44.25 ± 14.82 years and 44.15 ± 14.5 years, respectively. The follow up durations were 7.66 and 7.41 years for the periodontal treatment and comparison groups, respectively. We found 2504 and 1922 patients with newly diagnosed pneumonia in the comparison cohort and the periodontal treatment cohort, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier plot revealed that the cumulative incidence of pneumonia was significantly lower over the 12 year follow-up period in the periodontal treatment group (using the log-rank test, p < 0.001). In conclusion, this nationwide population-based study indicated that the patients with periodontal treatment exhibited a significantly lower risk of pneumonia than the general population.

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影响因子:2.89
发表时间:2020-04-01
DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.038
作者列表:["Ngocho JS","Horumpende PG","de Jonge MI","Mmbaga BT"]

METHODS:OBJECTIVE:To describe the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in children under five years in Tanzania. METHODS:Between January and December 2017, children aged 2-59 months with chest radiography-confirmed CAP were enrolled. The parents were interviewed to collect information on the patients and home-based medication. Clinical information was derived from the patient files. Nasopharyngeal swab and blood samples were collected for isolation of the causative pathogens. Swab samples were analysed by quantitative PCR whereas blood samples were tested using BacT/Alert 3D. RESULTS:Overall, 109 children with CAP were included in this analysis. Provision of care to most children was delayed (median = 4.6 days). A quarter (26.6%) were given unprescribed/leftover antibiotics at home. Only one child had positive bacterial culture. Referrals were associated with nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae (p = 0.003) and Haemophilus influenzae (p = 0.004). Of all admitted children, more than a quarter (n = 29) did not need to be hospitalised and inappropriately received injectable instead of oral antibiotics. CONCLUSION:We found high rates of home treatment, particularly with antibiotics. Appropriate health care was delayed for most children because of home treatment. Efforts are needed at the community level to improve awareness of antimicrobial resistance.

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肺炎方向

肺炎是指终末气道、肺泡和肺间质的炎症。可由细菌、病毒、真菌、寄生虫等致病微生物,以及放射线、吸入性异物等理化因素引起。临床主要症状为发热、咳嗽、咳痰、痰中带血,可伴胸痛或呼吸困难等。

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