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Does Xylinas' nomogram accurately predict intravesical recurrence risk after radical nephroureterectomy for primary upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma when applied to Asian populations?

当应用于亚洲人群时,xylinas的列线图能准确预测原发性上尿路尿路上皮癌根治性肾输尿管切除术后膀胱内复发的风险吗?

  • 影响因子:2.04
  • DOI:10.1093/jjco/hyaa138
  • 作者列表:"Lai S","Wu P","Diao T","Seery S","Liu J","Hou H","Liu M","Wang J
  • 发表时间:2021-03-03
Abstract

OBJECTIVE:To validate a prognostic nomogram (Xylinas' nomogram) for intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy for primary upper urinary tract urothelial carcinoma patients of Asian descent. METHODS:Clinicopathological and survival data from 243 primary urinary tract urothelial carcinoma patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy with bladder cuff excision between January 2004 and May 2017 were collated. Univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors associated with intravesical recurrence-free survival. External validation was determined using regression coefficients abstracted from previously published data. Performance was then quantified through calibration and discrimination, according to concordance indexes (c-index) in receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS:163 patients met our eligibility criteria and were finally included in this study. At a median follow-up of 60 months, intravesical recurrence occurred in 29.4% (n = 48). Multivariable analysis revealed that being male, ureteral tumor location, tumor multifocality and previous bladder cancer were independent prognostic factors of intravesical recurrence-free survival. When Xylinas' nomogram was applied to our cohort, the discriminatory power was found to be roughly equivalent with a c-index of 68.3% for the reduced model and 68.4% for the full model. Calibration plots also revealed intravesical recurrence predictions at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months had relative concordance. Contrasting the respective performances of the reduced and full model suggests there is no significant difference between the two (all P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS:This nomogram appears accurate at predicting intravesical recurrence after radical nephroureterectomy for primary urinary tract urothelial carcinoma in Asian populations. However, it remains necessary to data mine for unknown prognostic factors for optimization. Further external validation is required across larger, ethically diverse populations before applying this nomogram in clinical practice.

摘要

目的: 验证亚洲血统的原发性上尿路尿路上皮癌患者根治性肾输尿管切除术后膀胱内复发的预后列线图 (xylinas nomography)。 方法: 收集2004年1月至2017年5月间接受根治性肾输尿管切除术联合膀胱袖带切除术的243例原发性尿路尿路上皮癌患者的临床病理资料和生存资料。进行单变量和多变量Cox回归分析,以确定与膀胱内无复发生存率相关的独立危险因素。使用从先前公布的数据中提取的回归系数确定外部验证。然后根据接受者操作特征曲线中的一致性指数 (c-index),通过校准和区分来量化性能。 结果: 163例患者符合我们的入选标准,最终纳入本研究。中位随访60个月时,膀胱内复发发生率为29.4% (n = 48)。多因素分析显示,男性、输尿管肿瘤位置、肿瘤多灶性和既往膀胱癌是影响膀胱内无复发生存的独立预后因素。当将xylinas的列线图应用于我们的队列时,发现识别能力大致等效,简化模型的c指数为68.3%,完整模型的c指数为68.4%。校准图还揭示了在3、6、12、18、24和36个月时的膀胱内复发预测具有相对一致性。对比简化和全模型的各自性能表明两者之间没有显著差异 (均P> 0.05)。 结论: 在亚洲人群中,此列线图对原发性尿路尿路上皮癌根治性肾输尿管切除术后膀胱内复发的预测是准确的。然而,仍然需要对未知预后因素进行数据挖掘以进行优化。在临床实践中应用此列线图之前,需要在较大的伦理多样性人群中进行进一步的外部验证。

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