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Is gastric cancer becoming a rare disease? A global assessment of predicted incidence trends to 2035.

胃癌是否成为一种罕见疾病?2035年预测发病率趋势的全球评估。

  • 影响因子:10.30
  • DOI:10.1136/gutjnl-2019-320234
  • 作者列表:"Arnold M","Park JY","Camargo MC","Lunet N","Forman D","Soerjomataram I
  • 发表时间:2020-01-30
Abstract

OBJECTIVES:The incidence of gastric cancer continues to decrease globally, approaching levels that in some populations could define it as a rare disease. To explore this on a wider scale, we predict its future burden in 34 countries with long-standing population-based data. METHODS:Data on gastric cancer incidence by year of diagnosis, sex and age were extracted for 92 cancer registries in 34 countries included in Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Numbers of new cases and age-standardised incidence rates (ASR per 100 000) were predicted up to 2035 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. RESULTS:Overall gastric cancer incidence rates are predicted to continue falling in the future in the majority of countries, including high-incidence countries such as Japan (ASR 36 in 2010 vs ASR 30 in 2035) but also low-incidence countries such as Australia (ASR 5.1 in 2010 vs ASR 4.6 in 2035). A total of 16 countries are predicted to fall below the rare disease threshold (defined as 6 per 100 000 person-years) by 2035, while the number of newly diagnosed cases remains high and is predicted to continue growing. In contrast, incidence increases were seen in younger age groups (below age 50 years) in both low-incidence and high-incidence populations. CONCLUSIONS:While gastric cancer is predicted to become a rare disease in a growing number of countries, incidence levels remain high in some regions, and increasing risks have been observed in younger generations. The predicted growing number of new cases highlights that gastric cancer remains a major challenge to public health on a global scale.

摘要

目的: 胃癌的发病率在全球范围内持续下降,接近某些人群可将其定义为罕见疾病的水平。为了更广泛地探索这一点,我们用长期基于人口的数据预测了 34 个国家的未来负担。 方法: 提取了五大洲癌症发病率包括的 34 个国家的 92 个癌症登记处的胃癌发病率按诊断年份、性别和年龄的数据。通过拟合和外推 age-period-queue 模型预测 2035年新病例数和年龄标准化发病率 (ASR 每 100 000)。 结果: 在大多数国家,包括日本等高发国家,胃癌的总体发病率预计将在未来继续下降 (ASR 2010年 vs ASR 2035年) 但也有低发病率国家,如澳大利亚 (ASR 5.1 2010年 vs ASR 4.6 2035年)。预测共有 16 个国家低于罕见病阈值 (定义为每 100 000 人年 6 个) 2035年, 虽然新诊断病例的数量仍然很高,预计将继续增长。相比之下,在低发病率和高发病率人群中,在年轻年龄组 (50 岁以下) 中发病率增加。 结论: 虽然胃癌在越来越多的国家预测将成为一种罕见疾病,但在一些地区发病率仍然很高,在年轻一代中观察到风险增加。预测的越来越多的新病例突出表明,胃癌仍然是全球范围内公共卫生的主要挑战。

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